Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Market Tuna-Melt Sandwich with Kevin Bacon

One thing about this current "Market Meltdown" (a term I've heard used as the bi-line for at least 5 different news casts on a variety of channels) is that the people reporting it for the most part know absolutely ZERO about the markets. In fact from the reporting I've witnessed thus far being a expert on the markets seemed to be based on how many times you've watched Kevin Bacon in "Quicksilver".

One of the great errors and misunderstandings about the markets is that they can some how be predicted. They go up. They go down. The Bull and the Bear are more than just animal representations of that direction the market is headed. Those who actually work IN THE MARKETS (not people at Banks, thank you) know the Bull and Bear represent that undefinable element or X-factor in the market that can't be predicted. Not with all the charts, computer models, university degrees or tea leafs in the world.

The News approach to reporting the markets is largely based on the Weatherman model. Weatherman of course are able to explain what its like outside or why and how after the fact but more often than not they are wrong on what's going to happen. Perhaps with modern gadgets they can tell us what coming sooner than 20 years ago but I've yet to see them be right often enough to even pay attention. Yet there they are, the self appointed Market Weathermen explaining to you, Joe Average, how all this and that is going to effect the size of next weeks pot-roast.

Do they mention volume?

If XYZ suddenly drops down from 10$ to 8$ and suddenly someone is buying 900,000 shares of it at 8$, don't be surprised when it goes back up to 10$ or even 11$. When you start to see 900,000 shares being dumped don't be surprised when it starts to drop again.

That my friends is what the market is REALLY about, and despite what all the hippies and cry-babies might suggest there is nothing wrong with that.

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